California's 33rd congressional district in the Inland Empire features a heavily Democratic partisan composition that strongly favors the party in House races. Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, who advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising advantages, and alignment with the district's voter registration patterns. Recent primary results and historical margins underscore Republican challenges in turning out sufficient support. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory on November 3, though late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate-specific issues could still alter the general election dynamics.
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CA-33 House Election Winner
$17,877 Vol.
$17,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$17,877 Vol.
$17,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,029 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,848 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 33rd congressional district in the Inland Empire features a heavily Democratic partisan composition that strongly favors the party in House races. Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, who advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising advantages, and alignment with the district's voter registration patterns. Recent primary results and historical margins underscore Republican challenges in turning out sufficient support. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory on November 3, though late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate-specific issues could still alter the general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,877Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 33rd congressional district in the Inland Empire features a heavily Democratic partisan composition that strongly favors the party in House races. Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, who advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising advantages, and alignment with the district's voter registration patterns. Recent primary results and historical margins underscore Republican challenges in turning out sufficient support. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory on November 3, though late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate-specific issues could still alter the general election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,877Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 33rd congressional district in the Inland Empire features a heavily Democratic partisan composition that strongly favors the party in House races. Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, who advanced comfortably through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising advantages, and alignment with the district's voter registration patterns. Recent primary results and historical margins underscore Republican challenges in turning out sufficient support. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory on November 3, though late developments such as a national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate-specific issues could still alter the general election dynamics.
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