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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,286 Vol.

23%

José Mário Vaz

$22,291 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,019 Vol.

9%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,961 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,548 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Recent political instability following the November 2025 coup, which annulled disputed election results showing Fernando Dias da Costa ahead of incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, has left the December 2026 presidential contest wide open under military transitional rule. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent amid opposition boycott, strengthens presidential authority ahead of the vote and imposes residency requirements that may affect some challengers. Dias benefits from PAIGC-linked alliances and claims to prior tallies, while Embaló seeks a comeback despite his ouster and exile. The crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including former president José Mário Vaz, fragments support and raises prospects for consolidation around figures with strongest party or military backing in the coming months.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,755
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 23, 2025
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Recent political instability following the November 2025 coup, which annulled disputed election results showing Fernando Dias da Costa ahead of incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, has left the December 2026 presidential contest wide open under military transitional rule. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent amid opposition boycott, strengthens presidential authority ahead of the vote and imposes residency requirements that may affect some challengers. Dias benefits from PAIGC-linked alliances and claims to prior tallies, while Embaló seeks a comeback despite his ouster and exile. The crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including former president José Mário Vaz, fragments support and raises prospects for consolidation around figures with strongest party or military backing in the coming months.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,755
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 23, 2025
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 12 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Fernando Dias da Costa" di 23%, diikuti oleh "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" di 9%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 23¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 23% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" telah menghasilkan $339.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 6, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election," jelajahi 12 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" adalah "Fernando Dias da Costa" di 23%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 23% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" di 9%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.