**Trader consensus centers on a maximum temperature of 15–17 °C in Buenos Aires on August 2, with 16 °C holding the highest implied probability at 41.5 %.** This range aligns closely with climatological norms for early August in the Argentine capital, when the city typically experiences winter highs of 15–17 °C under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high and occasional cold fronts from Patagonia. Current model guidance from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international ensembles shows a relatively stable air mass with limited diurnal warming, producing daily maxima clustered near 15–16 °C. Slightly higher probabilities for 17 °C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects at the official observing site, while probabilities drop sharply above 18 °C or below 14 °C because recent model runs and observational trends show no strong warm advection or significant cold outbreak expected in the next 24–48 hours. The market distribution therefore captures the narrow forecast spread typical of short-range winter predictions in this region, where small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover can alter the daily maximum by 1–2 °C.