Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a cooling trend into August 17 for Chengdu, with afternoon maxima most likely stabilizing near 28–29°C amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity associated with East Asian monsoon flow. These conditions reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling relative to the hotter, clearer pattern observed earlier in the month. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture and convective timing explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27–29°C, while historical August climatology (typical highs 30–34°C) provides context for why extremes remain low-probability outcomes. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?
28°C 32%
27°C 27%
29°C 17%
30°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
9%
27°C
27%
28°C
32%
29°C
17%
30°C
13%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 32%
27°C 27%
29°C 17%
30°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
$216 Vol.
1%
24°C
$116 Vol.
3%
25°C
$33 Vol.
7%
26°C
$110 Vol.
9%
27°C
$50 Vol.
27%
28°C
$3 Vol.
32%
29°C
$12 Vol.
17%
30°C
$191 Vol.
13%
31°C
$19 Vol.
3%
32°C
$10 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$6 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a cooling trend into August 17 for Chengdu, with afternoon maxima most likely stabilizing near 28–29°C amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity associated with East Asian monsoon flow. These conditions reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling relative to the hotter, clearer pattern observed earlier in the month. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture and convective timing explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27–29°C, while historical August climatology (typical highs 30–34°C) provides context for why extremes remain low-probability outcomes. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$766Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a cooling trend into August 17 for Chengdu, with afternoon maxima most likely stabilizing near 28–29°C amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity associated with East Asian monsoon flow. These conditions reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling relative to the hotter, clearer pattern observed earlier in the month. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture and convective timing explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27–29°C, while historical August climatology (typical highs 30–34°C) provides context for why extremes remain low-probability outcomes. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$766Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a cooling trend into August 17 for Chengdu, with afternoon maxima most likely stabilizing near 28–29°C amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity associated with East Asian monsoon flow. These conditions reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling relative to the hotter, clearer pattern observed earlier in the month. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer moisture and convective timing explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27–29°C, while historical August climatology (typical highs 30–34°C) provides context for why extremes remain low-probability outcomes. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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