Recent official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather converge on daytime highs of 29–31°C in Madrid for August 21, driven by a post-heatwave transition featuring lighter winds, scattered cloud, and possible Atlantic moisture influence rather than peak summer insolation. This places the market’s heaviest weighting on 31°C (47.5 %) and 32°C (32.0 %), consistent with climatological late-August norms of 30–34°C while reflecting model consensus that rules out stronger ridging needed for 33°C-plus readings. Updated guidance over the past 48 hours has reinforced this cooler trajectory, tightening implied probabilities around the 30–32°C cluster ahead of final observational confirmation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
31°C 49%
32°C 27%
30°C 18%
29°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
18%
31°C
49%
32°C
27%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
31°C 49%
32°C 27%
30°C 18%
29°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$35 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
2%
29°C
$27 Vol.
5%
30°C
$71 Vol.
18%
31°C
$59 Vol.
49%
32°C
$43 Vol.
27%
33°C
$27 Vol.
5%
34°C
$22 Vol.
1%
35°C
$5 Vol.
4%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather converge on daytime highs of 29–31°C in Madrid for August 21, driven by a post-heatwave transition featuring lighter winds, scattered cloud, and possible Atlantic moisture influence rather than peak summer insolation. This places the market’s heaviest weighting on 31°C (47.5 %) and 32°C (32.0 %), consistent with climatological late-August norms of 30–34°C while reflecting model consensus that rules out stronger ridging needed for 33°C-plus readings. Updated guidance over the past 48 hours has reinforced this cooler trajectory, tightening implied probabilities around the 30–32°C cluster ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$294Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather converge on daytime highs of 29–31°C in Madrid for August 21, driven by a post-heatwave transition featuring lighter winds, scattered cloud, and possible Atlantic moisture influence rather than peak summer insolation. This places the market’s heaviest weighting on 31°C (47.5 %) and 32°C (32.0 %), consistent with climatological late-August norms of 30–34°C while reflecting model consensus that rules out stronger ridging needed for 33°C-plus readings. Updated guidance over the past 48 hours has reinforced this cooler trajectory, tightening implied probabilities around the 30–32°C cluster ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$294Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather converge on daytime highs of 29–31°C in Madrid for August 21, driven by a post-heatwave transition featuring lighter winds, scattered cloud, and possible Atlantic moisture influence rather than peak summer insolation. This places the market’s heaviest weighting on 31°C (47.5 %) and 32°C (32.0 %), consistent with climatological late-August norms of 30–34°C while reflecting model consensus that rules out stronger ridging needed for 33°C-plus readings. Updated guidance over the past 48 hours has reinforced this cooler trajectory, tightening implied probabilities around the 30–32°C cluster ahead of final observational confirmation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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