Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 13?
32°C 60%
33°C 29%
31°C 9.7%
30°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
10%
32°C
60%
33°C
29%
34°C
6%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
3%
32°C 60%
33°C 29%
31°C 9.7%
30°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
$6 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$85 Vol.
10%
32°C
$397 Vol.
60%
33°C
$32 Vol.
29%
34°C
$0 Vol.
6%
35°C
$5 Vol.
6%
36°C or higher
$6 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$531Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$531Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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