Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day for Wellington on September 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 13–15 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwesterly winds. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining westerly flow across New Zealand, producing typical spring temperature variability without strong cold-air outbreaks or heat advection in the current pattern. Historical September maxima average near 13–14 °C, and the latest short-range guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 14–15 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
15°C 48%
14°C 19%
16°C 14%
12°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
9%
13°C
7%
14°C
19%
15°C
48%
16°C
14%
17°C
7%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 48%
14°C 19%
16°C 14%
12°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
9°C or below
$105 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
3%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
7%
14°C
$45 Vol.
19%
15°C
$99 Vol.
48%
16°C
$11 Vol.
14%
17°C
$11 Vol.
7%
18°C
$57 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$105 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day for Wellington on September 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 13–15 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwesterly winds. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining westerly flow across New Zealand, producing typical spring temperature variability without strong cold-air outbreaks or heat advection in the current pattern. Historical September maxima average near 13–14 °C, and the latest short-range guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 14–15 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$496Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day for Wellington on September 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 13–15 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwesterly winds. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining westerly flow across New Zealand, producing typical spring temperature variability without strong cold-air outbreaks or heat advection in the current pattern. Historical September maxima average near 13–14 °C, and the latest short-range guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 14–15 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$496Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day for Wellington on September 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 13–15 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwesterly winds. Persistent El Niño conditions are sustaining westerly flow across New Zealand, producing typical spring temperature variability without strong cold-air outbreaks or heat advection in the current pattern. Historical September maxima average near 13–14 °C, and the latest short-range guidance shows limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 14–15 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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