Recent heatwave conditions across South Korea, driven by a persistent high-pressure system and clear skies, have produced daytime highs near 35–38°C in early August, establishing a warm baseline for Seoul and Incheon. Official Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble models indicate that August 5 temperatures will hinge on the timing and extent of forecast thunderstorms, which could enhance cloud cover, increase humidity, and limit peak solar heating. These factors create tight clustering in trader probabilities around 33–35°C, reflecting uncertainty in convective development and steering flow. Updated short-range forecasts from KMA and NOAA analogs will likely refine the maximum by resolution.