Short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a peak around 29–30°C for Tokyo on August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with implied probabilities above 65% combined. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer southerly flow support above-normal warmth, while urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity sustain elevated readings; however, variable afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers can suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread tied to steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture, with 28°C outcomes more likely under increased convection and 31°C if clearer skies prevail. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
29°C 39%
30°C 31%
28°C 15%
31°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
15%
29°C
39%
30°C
31%
31°C
12%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
29°C 39%
30°C 31%
28°C 15%
31°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$100 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$40 Vol.
1%
27°C
$437 Vol.
5%
28°C
$157 Vol.
15%
29°C
$2,204 Vol.
39%
30°C
$127 Vol.
31%
31°C
$183 Vol.
12%
32°C
$31 Vol.
3%
33°C
$26 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$124 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a peak around 29–30°C for Tokyo on August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with implied probabilities above 65% combined. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer southerly flow support above-normal warmth, while urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity sustain elevated readings; however, variable afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers can suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread tied to steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture, with 28°C outcomes more likely under increased convection and 31°C if clearer skies prevail. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,542Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a peak around 29–30°C for Tokyo on August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with implied probabilities above 65% combined. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer southerly flow support above-normal warmth, while urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity sustain elevated readings; however, variable afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers can suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread tied to steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture, with 28°C outcomes more likely under increased convection and 31°C if clearer skies prevail. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,542Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a peak around 29–30°C for Tokyo on August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with implied probabilities above 65% combined. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer southerly flow support above-normal warmth, while urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity sustain elevated readings; however, variable afternoon cloud cover or scattered showers can suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread tied to steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture, with 28°C outcomes more likely under increased convection and 31°C if clearer skies prevail. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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