Short-term forecast uncertainty from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the dispersed odds, with 27°C holding the highest implied probability at 34.5%. Key variables include the evolving position of the subtropical high, potential frontal passages or typhoon influences typical for mid-September in the region, variable cloud cover and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Seasonal baselines show average highs near 28°C, yet rapid model shifts in sea-surface temperatures or upper-level dynamics could favor 25–26°C or push readings toward 29°C or higher. New ensemble runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
27°C 37%
26°C 22%
28°C 17%
25°C 15%
BARU
BARU
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
15%
26°C
22%
27°C
37%
28°C
17%
29°C
7%
30°C
6%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 37%
26°C 22%
28°C 17%
25°C 15%
BARU
BARU
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
7%
25°C
$15 Vol.
15%
26°C
$9 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
37%
28°C
$6 Vol.
17%
29°C
$13 Vol.
7%
30°C
$49 Vol.
6%
31°C or higher
$70 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the dispersed odds, with 27°C holding the highest implied probability at 34.5%. Key variables include the evolving position of the subtropical high, potential frontal passages or typhoon influences typical for mid-September in the region, variable cloud cover and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Seasonal baselines show average highs near 28°C, yet rapid model shifts in sea-surface temperatures or upper-level dynamics could favor 25–26°C or push readings toward 29°C or higher. New ensemble runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$162Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the dispersed odds, with 27°C holding the highest implied probability at 34.5%. Key variables include the evolving position of the subtropical high, potential frontal passages or typhoon influences typical for mid-September in the region, variable cloud cover and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Seasonal baselines show average highs near 28°C, yet rapid model shifts in sea-surface temperatures or upper-level dynamics could favor 25–26°C or push readings toward 29°C or higher. New ensemble runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$162Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models drives the dispersed odds, with 27°C holding the highest implied probability at 34.5%. Key variables include the evolving position of the subtropical high, potential frontal passages or typhoon influences typical for mid-September in the region, variable cloud cover and wind patterns that modulate daytime heating, and the urban heat island effect amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Seasonal baselines show average highs near 28°C, yet rapid model shifts in sea-surface temperatures or upper-level dynamics could favor 25–26°C or push readings toward 29°C or higher. New ensemble runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan