Recent short-range forecasts from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate.com converge on a daytime high of 26–27°C in Warsaw for August 14 under mostly sunny to scattered-cloud conditions and light variable winds. These stable late-summer patterns over central Poland, with modest surface heating and no strong advection of warmer air, keep the distribution tightly centered on those two bins and explain their near-equal market-implied probabilities. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could still nudge the peak by 1°C, accounting for the smaller shares on 28°C and lower outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any last adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
26°C 38%
27°C 38%
28°C 9%
25°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
7%
26°C
38%
27°C
38%
28°C
9%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
3%
26°C 38%
27°C 38%
28°C 9%
25°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$573 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$524 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$161 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$208 Vol.
2%
24°C
$44 Vol.
6%
25°C
$102 Vol.
7%
26°C
$37 Vol.
38%
27°C
$0 Vol.
38%
28°C
$10 Vol.
9%
29°C
$31 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate.com converge on a daytime high of 26–27°C in Warsaw for August 14 under mostly sunny to scattered-cloud conditions and light variable winds. These stable late-summer patterns over central Poland, with modest surface heating and no strong advection of warmer air, keep the distribution tightly centered on those two bins and explain their near-equal market-implied probabilities. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could still nudge the peak by 1°C, accounting for the smaller shares on 28°C and lower outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any last adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,694Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate.com converge on a daytime high of 26–27°C in Warsaw for August 14 under mostly sunny to scattered-cloud conditions and light variable winds. These stable late-summer patterns over central Poland, with modest surface heating and no strong advection of warmer air, keep the distribution tightly centered on those two bins and explain their near-equal market-implied probabilities. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could still nudge the peak by 1°C, accounting for the smaller shares on 28°C and lower outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any last adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,694Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from sources including the BBC, Met Office, and timeanddate.com converge on a daytime high of 26–27°C in Warsaw for August 14 under mostly sunny to scattered-cloud conditions and light variable winds. These stable late-summer patterns over central Poland, with modest surface heating and no strong advection of warmer air, keep the distribution tightly centered on those two bins and explain their near-equal market-implied probabilities. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could still nudge the peak by 1°C, accounting for the smaller shares on 28°C and lower outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any last adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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