Recent global forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs, aligned with Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance, positions Moscow’s maximum temperature on August 14 near 16–18°C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and surface high pressure suppressing warm advection. Ensemble spreads and boundary-layer variations create tight clustering around these values, with 17°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 37% as traders weigh the latest model outputs and typical mid-August cooling trends. Minor shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could alter the peak by 1–2°C, while next model cycles and official updates ahead of the observation window will refine the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Moscow on August 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 14?
17°C 38%
18°C 26%
16°C 15%
15°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
13°C or below
5%
14°C
5%
15°C
10%
16°C
15%
17°C
38%
18°C
26%
19°C
12%
20°C
4%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
2%
17°C 38%
18°C 26%
16°C 15%
15°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
13°C or below
$17 Vol.
5%
14°C
$290 Vol.
5%
15°C
$3 Vol.
10%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$198 Vol.
26%
19°C
$111 Vol.
12%
20°C
$28 Vol.
4%
21°C
$5 Vol.
6%
22°C
$12 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs, aligned with Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance, positions Moscow’s maximum temperature on August 14 near 16–18°C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and surface high pressure suppressing warm advection. Ensemble spreads and boundary-layer variations create tight clustering around these values, with 17°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 37% as traders weigh the latest model outputs and typical mid-August cooling trends. Minor shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could alter the peak by 1–2°C, while next model cycles and official updates ahead of the observation window will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$677Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs, aligned with Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance, positions Moscow’s maximum temperature on August 14 near 16–18°C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and surface high pressure suppressing warm advection. Ensemble spreads and boundary-layer variations create tight clustering around these values, with 17°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 37% as traders weigh the latest model outputs and typical mid-August cooling trends. Minor shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could alter the peak by 1–2°C, while next model cycles and official updates ahead of the observation window will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$677Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs, aligned with Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance, positions Moscow’s maximum temperature on August 14 near 16–18°C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and surface high pressure suppressing warm advection. Ensemble spreads and boundary-layer variations create tight clustering around these values, with 17°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 37% as traders weigh the latest model outputs and typical mid-August cooling trends. Minor shifts in frontal timing or convective activity could alter the peak by 1–2°C, while next model cycles and official updates ahead of the observation window will refine the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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