Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C high in Wellington on August 18, reflecting MetService and NIWA guidance for daytime maxima in the 10–12°C range under persistent southerly flows and polar air intrusions typical of mid-winter. August climatology places the long-term average high near 12°C, yet recent observations have trended slightly cooler at 10–11°C amid passing showers and stronger winds that enhance mixing and limit daytime warming. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs showing limited warming potential before the next frontal passage. These factors anchor implied probabilities on the 11°C and 12°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 10°C if cooler maritime air dominates. MetService issues updated forecasts daily that could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
11°C 57%
12°C 29%
10°C 12%
9°C 2%
BARU
$24,659 Vol.
BARU
$24,659 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
57%
12°C
29%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 57%
12°C 29%
10°C 12%
9°C 2%
BARU
$24,659 Vol.
BARU
$24,659 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$334 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$845 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,081 Vol.
2%
10°C
$3,149 Vol.
12%
11°C
$3,753 Vol.
57%
12°C
$8,286 Vol.
29%
13°C
$2,271 Vol.
2%
14°C
$1,161 Vol.
1%
15°C
$878 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,831 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C high in Wellington on August 18, reflecting MetService and NIWA guidance for daytime maxima in the 10–12°C range under persistent southerly flows and polar air intrusions typical of mid-winter. August climatology places the long-term average high near 12°C, yet recent observations have trended slightly cooler at 10–11°C amid passing showers and stronger winds that enhance mixing and limit daytime warming. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs showing limited warming potential before the next frontal passage. These factors anchor implied probabilities on the 11°C and 12°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 10°C if cooler maritime air dominates. MetService issues updated forecasts daily that could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$24,659Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C high in Wellington on August 18, reflecting MetService and NIWA guidance for daytime maxima in the 10–12°C range under persistent southerly flows and polar air intrusions typical of mid-winter. August climatology places the long-term average high near 12°C, yet recent observations have trended slightly cooler at 10–11°C amid passing showers and stronger winds that enhance mixing and limit daytime warming. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs showing limited warming potential before the next frontal passage. These factors anchor implied probabilities on the 11°C and 12°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 10°C if cooler maritime air dominates. MetService issues updated forecasts daily that could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,659Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C high in Wellington on August 18, reflecting MetService and NIWA guidance for daytime maxima in the 10–12°C range under persistent southerly flows and polar air intrusions typical of mid-winter. August climatology places the long-term average high near 12°C, yet recent observations have trended slightly cooler at 10–11°C amid passing showers and stronger winds that enhance mixing and limit daytime warming. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs showing limited warming potential before the next frontal passage. These factors anchor implied probabilities on the 11°C and 12°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 10°C if cooler maritime air dominates. MetService issues updated forecasts daily that could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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