**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources currently cluster Chicago's August 18 maximum near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 82.5 °F, with expected highs between roughly 78–85 °F.** This distribution underpins the market's tight clustering around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any passing weak front or lake-breeze circulation, which can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees, along with cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that modulate surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to typical late-summer variability, keeping odds balanced between the two leading outcomes while limiting support for extremes above 85 °F or below 78 °F. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on August 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 18?
80-81°F 42%
82-83°F 34%
78-79°F 12%
84-85°F 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
42%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 42%
82-83°F 34%
78-79°F 12%
84-85°F 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$65 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$137 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$248 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$178 Vol.
42%
82-83°F
$157 Vol.
34%
84-85°F
$2 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$15 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$35 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources currently cluster Chicago's August 18 maximum near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 82.5 °F, with expected highs between roughly 78–85 °F.** This distribution underpins the market's tight clustering around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any passing weak front or lake-breeze circulation, which can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees, along with cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that modulate surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to typical late-summer variability, keeping odds balanced between the two leading outcomes while limiting support for extremes above 85 °F or below 78 °F. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$851Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources currently cluster Chicago's August 18 maximum near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 82.5 °F, with expected highs between roughly 78–85 °F.** This distribution underpins the market's tight clustering around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any passing weak front or lake-breeze circulation, which can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees, along with cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that modulate surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to typical late-summer variability, keeping odds balanced between the two leading outcomes while limiting support for extremes above 85 °F or below 78 °F. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$851Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources currently cluster Chicago's August 18 maximum near the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 82.5 °F, with expected highs between roughly 78–85 °F.** This distribution underpins the market's tight clustering around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any passing weak front or lake-breeze circulation, which can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees, along with cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that modulate surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to typical late-summer variability, keeping odds balanced between the two leading outcomes while limiting support for extremes above 85 °F or below 78 °F. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings over the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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