**Forecast models from sources like MetService and international agencies indicate a daytime high of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, under northerly winds and partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** This aligns closely with the market-implied probabilities, where 16°C leads at 50% and 15°C follows at 39%, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 12.5–14°C. Northerly airflow is advecting warmer air masses from lower latitudes, while high pressure supports clearer skies and limited cloud cover that allows daytime heating without significant cooling from showers or strong southerlies. Historical analogs for mid-September show typical maxima in the 13–15°C range, but recent model runs have stabilized around the upper end of that spectrum due to the persistent northerly regime. Short-term forecast updates through September 13–14 have shown little deviation, reinforcing the narrow 15–16°C band. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Wellington’s primary stations (e.g., airport or city sites), which traders monitor via real-time MetService data. With resolution imminent, the market prices capture the low uncertainty in current numerical weather prediction outputs, tempered by typical model spread of 1–2°C for 48-hour outlooks in this region.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
16°C 50%
15°C 39%
14°C 7%
17°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
39%
16°C
50%
17°C
7%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 50%
15°C 39%
14°C 7%
17°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$182 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$360 Vol.
2%
14°C
$590 Vol.
7%
15°C
$927 Vol.
39%
16°C
$442 Vol.
50%
17°C
$473 Vol.
7%
18°C
$279 Vol.
1%
19°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$258 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like MetService and international agencies indicate a daytime high of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, under northerly winds and partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** This aligns closely with the market-implied probabilities, where 16°C leads at 50% and 15°C follows at 39%, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 12.5–14°C.
Northerly airflow is advecting warmer air masses from lower latitudes, while high pressure supports clearer skies and limited cloud cover that allows daytime heating without significant cooling from showers or strong southerlies. Historical analogs for mid-September show typical maxima in the 13–15°C range, but recent model runs have stabilized around the upper end of that spectrum due to the persistent northerly regime.
Short-term forecast updates through September 13–14 have shown little deviation, reinforcing the narrow 15–16°C band. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Wellington’s primary stations (e.g., airport or city sites), which traders monitor via real-time MetService data. With resolution imminent, the market prices capture the low uncertainty in current numerical weather prediction outputs, tempered by typical model spread of 1–2°C for 48-hour outlooks in this region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,030Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like MetService and international agencies indicate a daytime high of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, under northerly winds and partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** This aligns closely with the market-implied probabilities, where 16°C leads at 50% and 15°C follows at 39%, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 12.5–14°C.
Northerly airflow is advecting warmer air masses from lower latitudes, while high pressure supports clearer skies and limited cloud cover that allows daytime heating without significant cooling from showers or strong southerlies. Historical analogs for mid-September show typical maxima in the 13–15°C range, but recent model runs have stabilized around the upper end of that spectrum due to the persistent northerly regime.
Short-term forecast updates through September 13–14 have shown little deviation, reinforcing the narrow 15–16°C band. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Wellington’s primary stations (e.g., airport or city sites), which traders monitor via real-time MetService data. With resolution imminent, the market prices capture the low uncertainty in current numerical weather prediction outputs, tempered by typical model spread of 1–2°C for 48-hour outlooks in this region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,030Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like MetService and international agencies indicate a daytime high of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, under northerly winds and partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk.** This aligns closely with the market-implied probabilities, where 16°C leads at 50% and 15°C follows at 39%, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 12.5–14°C. Northerly airflow is advecting warmer air masses from lower latitudes, while high pressure supports clearer skies and limited cloud cover that allows daytime heating without significant cooling from showers or strong southerlies. Historical analogs for mid-September show typical maxima in the 13–15°C range, but recent model runs have stabilized around the upper end of that spectrum due to the persistent northerly regime. Short-term forecast updates through September 13–14 have shown little deviation, reinforcing the narrow 15–16°C band. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Wellington’s primary stations (e.g., airport or city sites), which traders monitor via real-time MetService data. With resolution imminent, the market prices capture the low uncertainty in current numerical weather prediction outputs, tempered by typical model spread of 1–2°C for 48-hour outlooks in this region.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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