Latest ensemble forecasts from major models place the overnight low in Paris on September 15 near 16–17°C, driving the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around those outcomes. Milder-than-average conditions stem from a warmer air mass and reduced radiative cooling under increasing cloud cover and light winds, limiting the typical drop after daytime highs near 28–30°C. Paris’s urban heat island effect, where concrete and buildings retain warmth, further supports higher minima compared with historical mid-September averages of 11–12°C. Key variables differentiating 15°C from 17°C include exact timing of any frontal passage and local wind speeds that could enhance mixing. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and Meteo-France runs for shifts in these details before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Paris on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 15?
16°C 37%
17°C 34%
15°C 15%
18°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
4%
14°C
6%
15°C
15%
16°C
37%
17°C
34%
18°C
10%
19°C
7%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 37%
17°C 34%
15°C 15%
18°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
12°C
$10 Vol.
6%
13°C
$72 Vol.
4%
14°C
$88 Vol.
6%
15°C
$96 Vol.
15%
16°C
$175 Vol.
37%
17°C
$247 Vol.
34%
18°C
$73 Vol.
10%
19°C
$83 Vol.
7%
20°C
$89 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$59 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models place the overnight low in Paris on September 15 near 16–17°C, driving the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around those outcomes. Milder-than-average conditions stem from a warmer air mass and reduced radiative cooling under increasing cloud cover and light winds, limiting the typical drop after daytime highs near 28–30°C. Paris’s urban heat island effect, where concrete and buildings retain warmth, further supports higher minima compared with historical mid-September averages of 11–12°C. Key variables differentiating 15°C from 17°C include exact timing of any frontal passage and local wind speeds that could enhance mixing. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and Meteo-France runs for shifts in these details before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$976Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models place the overnight low in Paris on September 15 near 16–17°C, driving the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around those outcomes. Milder-than-average conditions stem from a warmer air mass and reduced radiative cooling under increasing cloud cover and light winds, limiting the typical drop after daytime highs near 28–30°C. Paris’s urban heat island effect, where concrete and buildings retain warmth, further supports higher minima compared with historical mid-September averages of 11–12°C. Key variables differentiating 15°C from 17°C include exact timing of any frontal passage and local wind speeds that could enhance mixing. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and Meteo-France runs for shifts in these details before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$976Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models place the overnight low in Paris on September 15 near 16–17°C, driving the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around those outcomes. Milder-than-average conditions stem from a warmer air mass and reduced radiative cooling under increasing cloud cover and light winds, limiting the typical drop after daytime highs near 28–30°C. Paris’s urban heat island effect, where concrete and buildings retain warmth, further supports higher minima compared with historical mid-September averages of 11–12°C. Key variables differentiating 15°C from 17°C include exact timing of any frontal passage and local wind speeds that could enhance mixing. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and Meteo-France runs for shifts in these details before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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