The near-even split between 50% implied probability for a minimum of 13°C or below and 47.5% for 23°C or higher on September 19 reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts for Beijing. During the seasonal transition to autumn, variable cold-air advection from northern high-pressure systems and the position of the subtropical jet can produce rapid day-to-day swings in surface minimum temperatures, amplified by local urban effects and boundary-layer mixing. Global models currently show wide spread in 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point forecasts over the next 48 hours, with limited consensus on frontal timing. Fresh runs from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, plus official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration, are expected to tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Beijing on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 19?
13°C or below 100%
23°C or higher 95%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
100%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
23%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
95%
13°C or below 100%
23°C or higher 95%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The near-even split between 50% implied probability for a minimum of 13°C or below and 47.5% for 23°C or higher on September 19 reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts for Beijing. During the seasonal transition to autumn, variable cold-air advection from northern high-pressure systems and the position of the subtropical jet can produce rapid day-to-day swings in surface minimum temperatures, amplified by local urban effects and boundary-layer mixing. Global models currently show wide spread in 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point forecasts over the next 48 hours, with limited consensus on frontal timing. Fresh runs from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, plus official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration, are expected to tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The near-even split between 50% implied probability for a minimum of 13°C or below and 47.5% for 23°C or higher on September 19 reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts for Beijing. During the seasonal transition to autumn, variable cold-air advection from northern high-pressure systems and the position of the subtropical jet can produce rapid day-to-day swings in surface minimum temperatures, amplified by local urban effects and boundary-layer mixing. Global models currently show wide spread in 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point forecasts over the next 48 hours, with limited consensus on frontal timing. Fresh runs from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, plus official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration, are expected to tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-even split between 50% implied probability for a minimum of 13°C or below and 47.5% for 23°C or higher on September 19 reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts for Beijing. During the seasonal transition to autumn, variable cold-air advection from northern high-pressure systems and the position of the subtropical jet can produce rapid day-to-day swings in surface minimum temperatures, amplified by local urban effects and boundary-layer mixing. Global models currently show wide spread in 850 hPa temperatures and dew-point forecasts over the next 48 hours, with limited consensus on frontal timing. Fresh runs from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, plus official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration, are expected to tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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