Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 Vol.
$42,457 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,457 Vol.
$42,457 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
$1,049 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,074 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,220 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,906 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,576 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,431 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$5,371 Vol.
No
30°C
$715 Vol.
No
31°C
$506 Vol.
No
32°C
$545 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,063 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$42,457Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,457Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 28°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 18, 2026, because official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and supporting meteorological models consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow range. Persistent cloud cover, high relative humidity near 70–90 percent, and light southerly flows limited nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the region’s subtropical summer climate. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows hover around 26–28°C, and recent model runs showed daily ranges of roughly 28–32°C without signs of significant cooling or a cold surge. The strong market-implied probability reflects this evidence-based stability. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky episode or sharp wind shift that enhanced heat loss, though such shifts remain unlikely given the prevailing pattern and short forecast horizon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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