**Current official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models converge on overnight lows of 19–24°C for Jinan on September 24 under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and a 60% chance of light rain or drizzle.** These conditions suppress strong radiative cooling by trapping heat and adding humidity, keeping temperatures well above climatological extremes for late September. Model spread arises mainly from differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal influence, which can shift the minimum by 2–4°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow greater heat loss. The closely matched market odds on ≤12°C versus ≥22°C reflect trader focus on these mesoscale uncertainties and potential station-specific measurement variance rather than any signal of major cold-air advection. Updated CMA guidance and evening model runs will likely narrow the range before resolution.