Ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and Météo-France for Paris on August 26 shows a tight spread in minimum temperatures centered near 18–20 °C, producing the nearly even market-implied odds across those bins. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiational cooling, and the strength of low-level northeasterly flow that could advect slightly cooler continental air. Recent runs indicate limited synoptic forcing, keeping the forecast sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution and shift trader positioning accordingly.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Paris on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 26?
19°C 50%
18°C 49%
20°C 42%
17°C 29%
BARU
BARU
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
13%
15°C
19%
16°C
20%
17°C
29%
18°C
49%
19°C
50%
20°C
42%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
8%
19°C 50%
18°C 49%
20°C 42%
17°C 29%
BARU
BARU
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$20 Vol.
13%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
42%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$20 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and Météo-France for Paris on August 26 shows a tight spread in minimum temperatures centered near 18–20 °C, producing the nearly even market-implied odds across those bins. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiational cooling, and the strength of low-level northeasterly flow that could advect slightly cooler continental air. Recent runs indicate limited synoptic forcing, keeping the forecast sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution and shift trader positioning accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$40Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and Météo-France for Paris on August 26 shows a tight spread in minimum temperatures centered near 18–20 °C, producing the nearly even market-implied odds across those bins. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiational cooling, and the strength of low-level northeasterly flow that could advect slightly cooler continental air. Recent runs indicate limited synoptic forcing, keeping the forecast sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution and shift trader positioning accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and Météo-France for Paris on August 26 shows a tight spread in minimum temperatures centered near 18–20 °C, producing the nearly even market-implied odds across those bins. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiational cooling, and the strength of low-level northeasterly flow that could advect slightly cooler continental air. Recent runs indicate limited synoptic forcing, keeping the forecast sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution and shift trader positioning accordingly.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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