The closely matched 43% and 41% implied probabilities for 26°C versus 25°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 16 reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty between major numerical weather prediction models. August climatology in the Yangtze River Delta features high humidity and urban heat retention that typically moderate overnight lows near 25–27°C, with outcomes hinging on variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. Official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these projections as new runs become available, allowing traders to assess model consensus shifts ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
26°C 43%
25°C 41%
27°C 12%
24°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
7%
25°C
41%
26°C
43%
27°C
12%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 43%
25°C 41%
27°C 12%
24°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$52 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$52 Vol.
1%
23°C
$20 Vol.
6%
24°C
$61 Vol.
7%
25°C
$1,558 Vol.
41%
26°C
$70 Vol.
43%
27°C
$36 Vol.
12%
28°C
$48 Vol.
3%
29°C
$47 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$27 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 43% and 41% implied probabilities for 26°C versus 25°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 16 reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty between major numerical weather prediction models. August climatology in the Yangtze River Delta features high humidity and urban heat retention that typically moderate overnight lows near 25–27°C, with outcomes hinging on variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. Official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these projections as new runs become available, allowing traders to assess model consensus shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,985Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched 43% and 41% implied probabilities for 26°C versus 25°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 16 reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty between major numerical weather prediction models. August climatology in the Yangtze River Delta features high humidity and urban heat retention that typically moderate overnight lows near 25–27°C, with outcomes hinging on variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. Official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these projections as new runs become available, allowing traders to assess model consensus shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,985Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 43% and 41% implied probabilities for 26°C versus 25°C as Shanghai’s lowest temperature on August 16 reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty between major numerical weather prediction models. August climatology in the Yangtze River Delta features high humidity and urban heat retention that typically moderate overnight lows near 25–27°C, with outcomes hinging on variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. Official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these projections as new runs become available, allowing traders to assess model consensus shifts ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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