**Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 14 maximum temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple extended forecasts consistently project a daytime high near 31 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting surface heating. This monsoon-enhanced cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared with clearer conditions, anchoring the most probable outcomes at 31 °C (33.5 %) and 32 °C (27.0 %). Differentiation among the tightly bunched 30–32 °C cluster hinges on short-term variability in convective timing and cloud thickness: heavier or earlier rainfall would favor 30 °C or lower, while brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief peaks to 32–33 °C. Long-term August climatology for Metro Manila centers around 31 °C, providing a stable baseline against which the current monsoon-suppressed pattern is evaluated. Updated PAGASA model runs and next-day observational trends remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Manila on August 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
31°C 46%
32°C 27%
30°C 22%
29°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
22%
31°C
35%
32°C
27%
33°C
10%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 46%
32°C 27%
30°C 22%
29°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$343 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$21 Vol.
1%
28°C
$234 Vol.
4%
29°C
$100 Vol.
10%
30°C
$2 Vol.
22%
31°C
$15 Vol.
35%
32°C
$30 Vol.
27%
33°C
$60 Vol.
10%
34°C
$37 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 14 maximum temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple extended forecasts consistently project a daytime high near 31 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting surface heating. This monsoon-enhanced cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared with clearer conditions, anchoring the most probable outcomes at 31 °C (33.5 %) and 32 °C (27.0 %). Differentiation among the tightly bunched 30–32 °C cluster hinges on short-term variability in convective timing and cloud thickness: heavier or earlier rainfall would favor 30 °C or lower, while brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief peaks to 32–33 °C. Long-term August climatology for Metro Manila centers around 31 °C, providing a stable baseline against which the current monsoon-suppressed pattern is evaluated. Updated PAGASA model runs and next-day observational trends remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$967Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 14 maximum temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple extended forecasts consistently project a daytime high near 31 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting surface heating. This monsoon-enhanced cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared with clearer conditions, anchoring the most probable outcomes at 31 °C (33.5 %) and 32 °C (27.0 %). Differentiation among the tightly bunched 30–32 °C cluster hinges on short-term variability in convective timing and cloud thickness: heavier or earlier rainfall would favor 30 °C or lower, while brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief peaks to 32–33 °C. Long-term August climatology for Metro Manila centers around 31 °C, providing a stable baseline against which the current monsoon-suppressed pattern is evaluated. Updated PAGASA model runs and next-day observational trends remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$967Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 14 maximum temperature.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple extended forecasts consistently project a daytime high near 31 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting surface heating. This monsoon-enhanced cloud cover and precipitation reduce solar insolation compared with clearer conditions, anchoring the most probable outcomes at 31 °C (33.5 %) and 32 °C (27.0 %). Differentiation among the tightly bunched 30–32 °C cluster hinges on short-term variability in convective timing and cloud thickness: heavier or earlier rainfall would favor 30 °C or lower, while brief breaks in cloudiness could allow brief peaks to 32–33 °C. Long-term August climatology for Metro Manila centers around 31 °C, providing a stable baseline against which the current monsoon-suppressed pattern is evaluated. Updated PAGASA model runs and next-day observational trends remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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