Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
6°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 Vol.
$877 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
Yes
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
6°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 Vol.
$877 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$153 Vol.
No
5°C
$22 Vol.
No
6°C
$105 Vol.
Yes
7°C
$45 Vol.
No
8°C
$112 Vol.
No
9°C
$191 Vol.
No
10°C
$235 Vol.
No
11°C
$0 Vol.
No
12°C
$15 Vol.
No
13°C
$0 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$877Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$877Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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