Recent April CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above consensus, has anchored trader expectations for May’s annual inflation print near 4.3%. Surging gasoline prices, driven by energy-market volatility, continue to lift headline figures while core measures show more moderate gains. Market-implied odds reflect this tight clustering around 4.2–4.4%, with the three leading outcomes collectively commanding nearly all probability as participants weigh the persistence of energy pass-through against potential moderation in shelter and food costs. Upcoming May data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications remain key swing factors before the June 10 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui≥4.4% 37%
4.3% 36%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 3.4%
$44,275 Vol.
$44,275 Vol.
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
3%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
36%
≥4.4%
37%
≥4.4% 37%
4.3% 36%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 3.4%
$44,275 Vol.
$44,275 Vol.
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
3%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
36%
≥4.4%
37%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above consensus, has anchored trader expectations for May’s annual inflation print near 4.3%. Surging gasoline prices, driven by energy-market volatility, continue to lift headline figures while core measures show more moderate gains. Market-implied odds reflect this tight clustering around 4.2–4.4%, with the three leading outcomes collectively commanding nearly all probability as participants weigh the persistence of energy pass-through against potential moderation in shelter and food costs. Upcoming May data releases and any shifts in Federal Reserve communications remain key swing factors before the June 10 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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