Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.1% implied probability for Eurozone annual HICP inflation exceeding 3.1% by year-end 2026, driven by March 2026's upward revision to 2.6%—the highest since July 2024—fueled by surging energy costs amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. This reversed the prior disinflation trajectory from February's 1.9%, amplifying concerns over sticky services inflation and robust wage growth. ECB staff projections forecast 2.6% average HICP for 2026, yet traders anticipate upside risks to December year-over-year rates, with 23.9% on 2.5–2.7%. Policymakers held deposit rates at 2.00% on March 19, downplaying an April 30 hike despite higher-for-longer sentiment; April HICP data, due early May, looms as the next catalyst.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiEurozone Annual Inflation 2026
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
3.1%+ 47.5%
2.8-3.0% 6.5%
2.5–2.7% 3.6%
1.0–1.2% 3.2%
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.2%
3%
1.3–1.5%
2%
1.6–1.8%
1%
1.9–2.1%
2%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
24%
2.8-3.0%
6%
3.1%+
53%
3.1%+ 47.5%
2.8-3.0% 6.5%
2.5–2.7% 3.6%
1.0–1.2% 3.2%
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.2%
3%
1.3–1.5%
2%
1.6–1.8%
1%
1.9–2.1%
2%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
24%
2.8-3.0%
6%
3.1%+
53%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.1% implied probability for Eurozone annual HICP inflation exceeding 3.1% by year-end 2026, driven by March 2026's upward revision to 2.6%—the highest since July 2024—fueled by surging energy costs amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. This reversed the prior disinflation trajectory from February's 1.9%, amplifying concerns over sticky services inflation and robust wage growth. ECB staff projections forecast 2.6% average HICP for 2026, yet traders anticipate upside risks to December year-over-year rates, with 23.9% on 2.5–2.7%. Policymakers held deposit rates at 2.00% on March 19, downplaying an April 30 hike despite higher-for-longer sentiment; April HICP data, due early May, looms as the next catalyst.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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