Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest (R) advanced unopposed in the March 10 Republican primary for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, locking in his party's nomination against Democrat Michael Chiaradio, who also faced no primary opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican victory reflects the district's Solidly Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, Guest's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—estimated over $700,000 raised—and historical GOP dominance in this midterm House race. No significant developments have emerged in the five weeks since the primaries to alter this positioning. Potential challenges include a major scandal for Guest, a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in battleground areas, or unexpected late-cycle resources for Chiaradio, ahead of the November 3 general election.
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MS-03 House Election Winner
$23,593 Vol.
$23,593 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$23,593 Vol.
$23,593 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,439 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$19,154 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest (R) advanced unopposed in the March 10 Republican primary for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, locking in his party's nomination against Democrat Michael Chiaradio, who also faced no primary opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican victory reflects the district's Solidly Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, Guest's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—estimated over $700,000 raised—and historical GOP dominance in this midterm House race. No significant developments have emerged in the five weeks since the primaries to alter this positioning. Potential challenges include a major scandal for Guest, a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in battleground areas, or unexpected late-cycle resources for Chiaradio, ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$23,593Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest (R) advanced unopposed in the March 10 Republican primary for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, locking in his party's nomination against Democrat Michael Chiaradio, who also faced no primary opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican victory reflects the district's Solidly Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, Guest's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—estimated over $700,000 raised—and historical GOP dominance in this midterm House race. No significant developments have emerged in the five weeks since the primaries to alter this positioning. Potential challenges include a major scandal for Guest, a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in battleground areas, or unexpected late-cycle resources for Chiaradio, ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,593Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest (R) advanced unopposed in the March 10 Republican primary for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, locking in his party's nomination against Democrat Michael Chiaradio, who also faced no primary opposition. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican victory reflects the district's Solidly Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, Guest's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—estimated over $700,000 raised—and historical GOP dominance in this midterm House race. No significant developments have emerged in the five weeks since the primaries to alter this positioning. Potential challenges include a major scandal for Guest, a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in battleground areas, or unexpected late-cycle resources for Chiaradio, ahead of the November 3 general election.
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