Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOctober 13 25%
October 29 25%
October 27 24%
October 22 17%
BARU
BARU
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
16%
October 2
25%
October 3
13%
October 4
25%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
14%
October 9
9%
October 10
7%
October 11
13%
October 12
13%
October 13
25%
October 14
14%
October 15
14%
October 16
8%
October 17
14%
October 18
8%
October 19
14%
October 20
13%
October 21
13%
October 22
17%
October 23
7%
October 24
17%
October 25
13%
October 26
14%
October 27
24%
October 28
13%
October 29
25%
October 30
17%
October 31
13%
No release by October 31
15%
October 13 25%
October 29 25%
October 27 24%
October 22 17%
BARU
BARU
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$24 Vol.
16%
October 2
$24 Vol.
25%
October 3
$24 Vol.
13%
October 4
$24 Vol.
25%
October 5
$24 Vol.
14%
October 6
$24 Vol.
14%
October 7
$24 Vol.
14%
October 8
$24 Vol.
14%
October 9
$29 Vol.
9%
October 10
$24 Vol.
7%
October 11
$24 Vol.
13%
October 12
$24 Vol.
13%
October 13
$24 Vol.
25%
October 14
$24 Vol.
14%
October 15
$24 Vol.
14%
October 16
$24 Vol.
8%
October 17
$24 Vol.
14%
October 18
$24 Vol.
8%
October 19
$24 Vol.
14%
October 20
$24 Vol.
13%
October 21
$24 Vol.
13%
October 22
$24 Vol.
17%
October 23
$24 Vol.
7%
October 24
$24 Vol.
17%
October 25
$24 Vol.
13%
October 26
$24 Vol.
14%
October 27
$24 Vol.
24%
October 28
$24 Vol.
13%
October 29
$24 Vol.
25%
October 30
$24 Vol.
17%
October 31
$32 Vol.
13%
No release by October 31
$24 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$787Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$787Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s pattern of monthly Muse Spark iterations—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities around early-to-mid-month dates. The 1.3 update delivered notable gains in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding efficiency via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, with Zuckerberg highlighting frontier price-performance and teasing further open-weights releases. Traders weigh this cadence against the absence of any confirmed 1.4 timeline or internal benchmarks, while competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models and ongoing Superintelligence Labs scaling create uncertainty around exact timing. Key near-term catalysts include developer conferences, API pricing changes, or executive statements that could shift release windows before the October 31 cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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