Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOther 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-max 4.4%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 28, 2026
Other
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
43%
claude-opus-5-max
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
Other 55%
claude-fable-5.1-max 43%
claude-opus-5-max 4.4%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 28, 2026
Other
$369 Vol.
55%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$201 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-5-max
$73 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$113 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-high
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volume
$829Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$829Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent model releases drive the current odds, with Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple independent leaderboards like BenchLM and LM Market Cap through September 22 on metrics including agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work. Its early September launch established it as the frontier leader among widely available models. The September 22 debut of Claude Opus 5.5, which Anthropic positions as matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 performance on key benchmarks at roughly 40% lower cost and higher speed, introduces fresh uncertainty just days before resolution. Traders assign claude-fable-5.1-max a strong but sub-50% chance while favoring "Other" at 55.5%, reflecting the tight competitive landscape with models like GPT-6 Astra and the possibility of rapid shifts or non-Claude frontrunners by September 28.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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