In Watson v. Republican National Committee, Supreme Court justices voiced significant skepticism during March 23 oral arguments toward Mississippi's law allowing mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received up to five days later. Multiple reports noted a majority, including conservative justices, appeared ready to rule that federal statutes establishing a uniform Election Day preempt such state grace periods, potentially invalidating similar rules in 14 states and D.C. This bench signaling drives the 81% Yes trader consensus, reflecting expectations of a restrictive ruling ahead of 2026 midterms, though a final decision remains pending and could still shift based on the opinion. Election officials have warned of processing challenges if late ballots are barred.