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icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

10 or more states 53%

5-6 states 42%

7-9 states 42%

1-2 states 27%

Polymarket
BARU

10 or more states 53%

5-6 states 42%

7-9 states 42%

1-2 states 27%

Polymarket
BARU

0 states

$1 Vol.

27%

1-2 states

$0 Vol.

27%

3-4 states

$1 Vol.

27%

5-6 states

$0 Vol.

42%

7-9 states

$1 Vol.

42%

10 or more states

$0 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought persisting across multiple western and Great Plains states, with recent expansions into northeastern Idaho and continued presence in areas of Oregon, Nebraska, Colorado, and adjacent regions amid prolonged dryness and elevated evaporative demand. National D4 coverage stands near 1.5 percent of the contiguous U.S., concentrated where soil moisture and groundwater deficits remain extreme. Strengthening El Niño conditions and CPC outlooks favor some monsoon-driven improvement in the Southwest later in the season, yet short-term persistence is expected through early September in core western drought zones. This established footprint and limited near-term relief underpin trader consensus favoring 10 or more states in D4 for the week of September 1.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought persisting across multiple western and Great Plains states, with recent expansions into northeastern Idaho and continued presence in areas of Oregon, Nebraska, Colorado, and adjacent regions amid prolonged dryness and elevated evaporative demand. National D4 coverage stands near 1.5 percent of the contiguous U.S., concentrated where soil moisture and groundwater deficits remain extreme. Strengthening El Niño conditions and CPC outlooks favor some monsoon-driven improvement in the Southwest later in the season, yet short-term persistence is expected through early September in core western drought zones. This established footprint and limited near-term relief underpin trader consensus favoring 10 or more states in D4 for the week of September 1.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Terkait

icon for Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

99%
icon for Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

96%
icon for Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

99%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "10 or more states" di 53%, diikuti oleh "5-6 states" di 42%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 53¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 27, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" adalah "10 or more states" di 53%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "5-6 states" di 42%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.