Near-certain trader consensus on no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 stems from the low historical frequency of such events, with objects capable of producing 100 kt airbursts—roughly 10–20 meters across—impacting Earth only once every few hundred years based on satellite and infrasound records. Comprehensive NASA near-Earth object surveys have cataloged most threatening bodies, revealing none on collision trajectories through the near term, while atmospheric monitoring systems would likely detect any imminent risk well in advance. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an undetected small asteroid or comet fragment arriving from a sunward or southern approach that evades current surveys, though model consensus and observational baselines place that probability well below 5%.