Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations and expulsions. The U.S. State Department disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani last December over national security concerns, while Argentina declared chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata on April 2 amid tensions over its IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon followed regional missile incidents and security issues, but no fresh triggers—like airstrikes, sanctions, or official retaliation statements—have emerged in the past 10 days to prompt further ejections. Absent escalation, traders anticipate stasis through resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations and expulsions. The U.S. State Department disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani last December over national security concerns, while Argentina declared chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata on April 2 amid tensions over its IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon followed regional missile incidents and security issues, but no fresh triggers—like airstrikes, sanctions, or official retaliation statements—have emerged in the past 10 days to prompt further ejections. Absent escalation, traders anticipate stasis through resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$7,146Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations and expulsions. The U.S. State Department disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani last December over national security concerns, while Argentina declared chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata on April 2 amid tensions over its IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon followed regional missile incidents and security issues, but no fresh triggers—like airstrikes, sanctions, or official retaliation statements—have emerged in the past 10 days to prompt further ejections. Absent escalation, traders anticipate stasis through resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,146Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by a lull in diplomatic actions since early April revelations and expulsions. The U.S. State Department disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani last December over national security concerns, while Argentina declared chargé d'affaires Mohsen Soltani Tehrani persona non grata on April 2 amid tensions over its IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Lebanon followed regional missile incidents and security issues, but no fresh triggers—like airstrikes, sanctions, or official retaliation statements—have emerged in the past 10 days to prompt further ejections. Absent escalation, traders anticipate stasis through resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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