Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.3% "No" on Bill Gates facing criminal charges by June 30, driven by the absence of any active DOJ or FBI criminal investigation despite ongoing congressional scrutiny over his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Recent releases of Epstein files in early 2026 named Gates but contained no victim accusations of misconduct against him, and fact-checks have debunked viral claims of indictments or arrests. His scheduled closed-door testimony before the House Oversight Committee on June 10 examines associations, not prosecution, with no grand jury or special counsel activity reported. Realistic shifts would require sudden new evidence prompting federal charges, such as credible victim testimony or a surprise indictment, though historical patterns in high-profile Epstein probes show such rapid escalations rare absent prior procedural steps.