China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 64%
5,0–6,0% 35.6%
<1,0% 1.3%
6,0-7,0% 1.3%
$256,120 Vol.
$256,120 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
1%
1,0–2,0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
64%
5,0–6,0%
31%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 64%
5,0–6,0% 35.6%
<1,0% 1.3%
6,0-7,0% 1.3%
$256,120 Vol.
$256,120 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
$22,840 Vol.
1%
1,0–2,0%
$27,369 Vol.
1%
2,0–3,0%
$6,614 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0%
$10,429 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0%
$41,703 Vol.
64%
5,0–6,0%
$21,910 Vol.
31%
6,0-7,0%
$19,570 Vol.
1%
7,0–8,0%
$29,766 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$6,927 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$68,994 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$256,120Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$256,120Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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