Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
8°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$68,920 Vol.
$68,920 Vol.
2 mag 2026
3°C or below
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C or higher
No
8°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$68,920 Vol.
$68,920 Vol.
2 mag 2026
3°C or below
$1,506 Vol.
No
4°C
$2,167 Vol.
No
5°C
$3,108 Vol.
No
6°C
$4,425 Vol.
No
7°C
$12,034 Vol.
No
8°C
$13,170 Vol.
Yes
9°C
$7,477 Vol.
No
10°C
$10,262 Vol.
No
11°C
$6,064 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,297 Vol.
No
13°C or higher
$4,409 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$68,920Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$68,920Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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