Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a peak temperature of 35°C (35.5%), with 34°C and 36°C close behind at 22.5% each, reflecting consensus around typical mid-August subtropical conditions in Guangzhou. Official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and regional models indicate daytime highs of 32–34°C on August 15 amid scattered thunderstorms and showers, which often limit extreme heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical baselines show August averages near 33–34°C, with humidity exceeding 80% amplifying perceived heat but rarely pushing records without clear, stable high-pressure systems. Recent model runs emphasize monsoon trough influences and potential rain bands that favor the 34–36°C cluster over outliers, though slight shifts in steering patterns or delayed convection could adjust the final maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Guangzhou il 15 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Guangzhou il 15 agosto?
35°C 35%
36°C 23%
34°C 22%
33°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 ago 2026
29°C o inferiore
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
11%
34°C
22%
35°C
35%
36°C
23%
37°C
6%
38°C
1%
39°C o superiore
<1%
35°C 35%
36°C 23%
34°C 22%
33°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 ago 2026
29°C o inferiore
$141 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,589 Vol.
1%
32°C
$1,578 Vol.
4%
33°C
$641 Vol.
11%
34°C
$330 Vol.
22%
35°C
$482 Vol.
35%
36°C
$510 Vol.
23%
37°C
$570 Vol.
6%
38°C
$333 Vol.
1%
39°C o superiore
$209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a peak temperature of 35°C (35.5%), with 34°C and 36°C close behind at 22.5% each, reflecting consensus around typical mid-August subtropical conditions in Guangzhou. Official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and regional models indicate daytime highs of 32–34°C on August 15 amid scattered thunderstorms and showers, which often limit extreme heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical baselines show August averages near 33–34°C, with humidity exceeding 80% amplifying perceived heat but rarely pushing records without clear, stable high-pressure systems. Recent model runs emphasize monsoon trough influences and potential rain bands that favor the 34–36°C cluster over outliers, though slight shifts in steering patterns or delayed convection could adjust the final maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$6,447Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a peak temperature of 35°C (35.5%), with 34°C and 36°C close behind at 22.5% each, reflecting consensus around typical mid-August subtropical conditions in Guangzhou. Official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and regional models indicate daytime highs of 32–34°C on August 15 amid scattered thunderstorms and showers, which often limit extreme heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical baselines show August averages near 33–34°C, with humidity exceeding 80% amplifying perceived heat but rarely pushing records without clear, stable high-pressure systems. Recent model runs emphasize monsoon trough influences and potential rain bands that favor the 34–36°C cluster over outliers, though slight shifts in steering patterns or delayed convection could adjust the final maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,447Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a peak temperature of 35°C (35.5%), with 34°C and 36°C close behind at 22.5% each, reflecting consensus around typical mid-August subtropical conditions in Guangzhou. Official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and regional models indicate daytime highs of 32–34°C on August 15 amid scattered thunderstorms and showers, which often limit extreme heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical baselines show August averages near 33–34°C, with humidity exceeding 80% amplifying perceived heat but rarely pushing records without clear, stable high-pressure systems. Recent model runs emphasize monsoon trough influences and potential rain bands that favor the 34–36°C cluster over outliers, though slight shifts in steering patterns or delayed convection could adjust the final maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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