Recent forecasts indicate a cooling trend across northern France, with an Atlantic air mass and increased cloud cover expected to limit overnight radiative warming in Paris ahead of August 15. Model consensus from sources like Météo-France and the Met Office points to minimum temperatures in the 15–20 °C range, well below the midweek peaks near 37 °C, as scattered thunderstorms and moderating winds enhance nocturnal cooling. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 15–18 °C at Paris stations, where urban heat-island effects rarely push the daily minimum above 22 °C absent strong high-pressure subsidence. Traders have priced the 22 °C-or-below outcome above 80 % because ensemble runs show low likelihood of the warm advection needed for higher minima, though minor forecast shifts in steering patterns could still adjust the final reading before resolution.