Official observations from the Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport meteorological station, the market's resolution source, recorded a maximum temperature of 21°C on May 2, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data aligns with preliminary reports. This reflects mild early May conditions typical for Madrid, where historical averages hover around 20–22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds suppressing stronger heating, consistent with AEMET's pre-event forecasts showing no heat anomalies or frontal passages. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs had converged on this range 24–48 hours prior. Realistic challenges would require an official data audit revealing sensor errors or alternative station validations exceeding 21°C, though such revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification. Traders await AEMET's daily bulletin for closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$270,608 Vol.
$270,608 Vol.
2 mag 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$270,608 Vol.
$270,608 Vol.
2 mag 2026
16°C or below
$6,339 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,466 Vol.
No
18°C
$34,732 Vol.
No
19°C
$22,289 Vol.
No
20°C
$15,226 Vol.
No
21°C
$29,794 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$36,678 Vol.
No
23°C
$37,939 Vol.
No
24°C
$30,642 Vol.
No
25°C
$22,282 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$27,219 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport meteorological station, the market's resolution source, recorded a maximum temperature of 21°C on May 2, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data aligns with preliminary reports. This reflects mild early May conditions typical for Madrid, where historical averages hover around 20–22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds suppressing stronger heating, consistent with AEMET's pre-event forecasts showing no heat anomalies or frontal passages. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs had converged on this range 24–48 hours prior. Realistic challenges would require an official data audit revealing sensor errors or alternative station validations exceeding 21°C, though such revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification. Traders await AEMET's daily bulletin for closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$270,608Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport meteorological station, the market's resolution source, recorded a maximum temperature of 21°C on May 2, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data aligns with preliminary reports. This reflects mild early May conditions typical for Madrid, where historical averages hover around 20–22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds suppressing stronger heating, consistent with AEMET's pre-event forecasts showing no heat anomalies or frontal passages. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs had converged on this range 24–48 hours prior. Realistic challenges would require an official data audit revealing sensor errors or alternative station validations exceeding 21°C, though such revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification. Traders await AEMET's daily bulletin for closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$270,608Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Official observations from the Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport meteorological station, the market's resolution source, recorded a maximum temperature of 21°C on May 2, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data aligns with preliminary reports. This reflects mild early May conditions typical for Madrid, where historical averages hover around 20–22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds suppressing stronger heating, consistent with AEMET's pre-event forecasts showing no heat anomalies or frontal passages. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs had converged on this range 24–48 hours prior. Realistic challenges would require an official data audit revealing sensor errors or alternative station validations exceeding 21°C, though such revisions are exceedingly rare post-verification. Traders await AEMET's daily bulletin for closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti