**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in NYC on July 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?
100-101°F 40%
102-103°F 25%
98-99°F 23%
97°F or below 12%
$86,225 Vol.
$86,225 Vol.
2 lug 2026
97°F or below
12%
98-99°F
23%
100-101°F
40%
102-103°F
25%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
<1%
114-115°F
<1%
116°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 40%
102-103°F 25%
98-99°F 23%
97°F or below 12%
$86,225 Vol.
$86,225 Vol.
2 lug 2026
97°F or below
$10,865 Vol.
12%
98-99°F
$12,503 Vol.
23%
100-101°F
$10,587 Vol.
40%
102-103°F
$7,463 Vol.
25%
104-105°F
$10,503 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$9,402 Vol.
1%
108-109°F
$4,912 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$10,231 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$4,096 Vol.
<1%
114-115°F
$2,287 Vol.
<1%
116°F or higher
$3,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$86,225Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$86,225Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti