The contested Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th district between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein drove unusually high participation on May 19. National attention, record campaign spending, and strong mobilization by both sides more than doubled the 2024 primary total, producing roughly 104,000–105,000 Republican votes. Early voting trends, statewide primary turnout above recent midterm averages, and district-specific data on registered GOP voters all pointed to this elevated level well before election night. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the 100-110k range because certified results align tightly with that band. Only substantial late revisions to provisional or absentee ballots could realistically alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.7%
<80k 1.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
19 mag 2026
<80k
2%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
5%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.7%
<80k 1.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
19 mag 2026
<80k
$5,312 Vol.
2%
80-90k
$4,066 Vol.
1%
90-100k
$2,741 Vol.
5%
100-110k
$13,472 Vol.
100%
110-120k
$7,064 Vol.
<1%
120k+
$15,456 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The contested Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th district between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein drove unusually high participation on May 19. National attention, record campaign spending, and strong mobilization by both sides more than doubled the 2024 primary total, producing roughly 104,000–105,000 Republican votes. Early voting trends, statewide primary turnout above recent midterm averages, and district-specific data on registered GOP voters all pointed to this elevated level well before election night. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the 100-110k range because certified results align tightly with that band. Only substantial late revisions to provisional or absentee ballots could realistically alter the outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercato aperto: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$48,111Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The contested Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th district between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein drove unusually high participation on May 19. National attention, record campaign spending, and strong mobilization by both sides more than doubled the 2024 primary total, producing roughly 104,000–105,000 Republican votes. Early voting trends, statewide primary turnout above recent midterm averages, and district-specific data on registered GOP voters all pointed to this elevated level well before election night. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the 100-110k range because certified results align tightly with that band. Only substantial late revisions to provisional or absentee ballots could realistically alter the outcome.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$48,111Data di fine
19 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The contested Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th district between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein drove unusually high participation on May 19. National attention, record campaign spending, and strong mobilization by both sides more than doubled the 2024 primary total, producing roughly 104,000–105,000 Republican votes. Early voting trends, statewide primary turnout above recent midterm averages, and district-specific data on registered GOP voters all pointed to this elevated level well before election night. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the 100-110k range because certified results align tightly with that band. Only substantial late revisions to provisional or absentee ballots could realistically alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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