Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. The district's strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+17 to R+26, combined with Johnson's established name recognition and substantial fundraising advantage, underpins this outlook. All major race ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 open primary and potential December 12 runoff. Democratic challengers have raised minimal funds and face structural barriers in this northwestern Louisiana district. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
$11,897 Vol.
$11,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$11,897 Vol.
$11,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$3,671 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$8,226 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. The district's strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+17 to R+26, combined with Johnson's established name recognition and substantial fundraising advantage, underpins this outlook. All major race ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 open primary and potential December 12 runoff. Democratic challengers have raised minimal funds and face structural barriers in this northwestern Louisiana district. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. The district's strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+17 to R+26, combined with Johnson's established name recognition and substantial fundraising advantage, underpins this outlook. All major race ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 open primary and potential December 12 runoff. Democratic challengers have raised minimal funds and face structural barriers in this northwestern Louisiana district. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson holds a commanding position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican win. The district's strong Republican lean, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+17 to R+26, combined with Johnson's established name recognition and substantial fundraising advantage, underpins this outlook. All major race ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 open primary and potential December 12 runoff. Democratic challengers have raised minimal funds and face structural barriers in this northwestern Louisiana district. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political shift would be required to meaningfully alter the current implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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