Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Austin il 24 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Austin il 24 agosto?
92°F o superiore 92%
73°F o inferiore 48%
84-85°F 36%
86-87°F 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
73°F o inferiore
48%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
36%
86-87°F
36%
88-89°F
36%
90-91°F
36%
92°F o superiore
92%
92°F o superiore 92%
73°F o inferiore 48%
84-85°F 36%
86-87°F 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
73°F o inferiore
$0 Vol.
48%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$4 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
36%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
36%
88-89°F
$5 Vol.
36%
90-91°F
$5 Vol.
36%
92°F o superiore
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$29Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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