Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts project daytime highs of 31–33°C for Incheon on August 23 after widespread rain clears, supporting the market’s leading 31°C and 32°C outcomes at 33.5% and 24.5% implied probability. Clearing skies and light southerly flow favor afternoon warming, though ensemble model spreads and residual moisture introduce uncertainty around exact peak values near official stations. Historical late-August climatology shows typical maxima near 30–32°C, aligning with trader positioning that discounts extremes below 29°C or above 33°C absent major forecast revisions. Updated model runs and KMA briefings ahead of resolution will likely drive any shifts in these closely matched probabilities.