Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Seoul il 26 aprile?
La temperatura più bassa a Seoul il 26 aprile?
8°C o inferiore 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Vol.
$82,179 Vol.
26 apr 2026
8°C o inferiore
Sì
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C o superiore
No
8°C o inferiore 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Vol.
$82,179 Vol.
26 apr 2026
8°C o inferiore
$34,202 Vol.
Sì
9°C
$33,064 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,106 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,097 Vol.
No
12°C
$708 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,401 Vol.
No
14°C
$944 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,466 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,163 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,045 Vol.
No
18°C o superiore
$1,984 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$82,179Data di fine
26 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$82,179Data di fine
26 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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