Current forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms over Incheon through August 31, limiting daytime heating and overnight radiative cooling to produce minimum temperatures near 22–24°C. These conditions, driven by regional moisture advection and reduced solar insolation, narrow the typical late-August diurnal range and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the low-to-mid 20s. Trader consensus on the 28°C+ outcome at 34.5% likely reflects residual uncertainty in model runs and potential for brief clear spells, while lower-probability colder bins account for heavier rainfall enhancing evaporative cooling. Updated model guidance expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.