Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models point to a Tokyo minimum of 21–23°C on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeast flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of hotter, clearer weather earlier in the week and align closely with climatological expectations for late August under a moist, stable airmass. Market-implied odds favoring 22°C reflect the tight clustering of deterministic and probabilistic guidance around that value, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the modest uncertainty range in short-range temperature forecasts. Official observations from central Tokyo stations will determine the exact recorded minimum once the calendar day concludes.