Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Varsavia il 21 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Varsavia il 21 settembre?
16°C o superiore 95%
6°C o inferiore 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 40%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 set 2026
6°C o inferiore
49%
7°C
18%
8°C
9%
9°C
37%
10°C
26%
11°C
22%
12°C
40%
13°C
20%
14°C
34%
15°C
5%
16°C o superiore
95%
16°C o superiore 95%
6°C o inferiore 49%
10°C 46%
12°C 40%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 set 2026
6°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
18%
8°C
$0 Vol.
9%
9°C
$0 Vol.
37%
10°C
$13 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$0 Vol.
5%
16°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13Data di fine
21 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 21 likely between 9–12°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range due to uncertainties in cloud timing and wind speeds, which directly supports elevated market-implied odds for the 10°C and 11°C bins while the 16°C-or-higher outcome reflects residual warm-air advection scenarios. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 10°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to sub-12°C outcomes ahead of the next model update cycle.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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