**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.** Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection. The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 15 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 15 settembre?
10°C 100.0%
5°C o inferiore <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,952 Vol.
$1,952 Vol.
15 set 2026
5°C o inferiore
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Sì
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C o superiore
No
10°C 100.0%
5°C o inferiore <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,952 Vol.
$1,952 Vol.
15 set 2026
5°C o inferiore
$86 Vol.
No
6°C
$146 Vol.
No
7°C
$274 Vol.
No
8°C
$140 Vol.
No
9°C
$94 Vol.
No
10°C
$229 Vol.
Sì
11°C
$937 Vol.
No
12°C
$16 Vol.
No
13°C
$10 Vol.
No
14°C
$10 Vol.
No
15°C o superiore
$10 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.**
Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection.
The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,952Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.**
Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection.
The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,952Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Current forecasts from MetService and multiple international models indicate a minimum temperature of 10°C for Wellington on September 15, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.5% implied probability on that exact outcome.** Overnight conditions feature northerly to northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph under partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 10°C limiting further cooling. This matches the typical early-spring pattern, where September average lows hover around 9°C but recent model runs have stabilized near 10°C amid stable high pressure and mild advection. The strong consensus reflects real-time observational data showing daytime highs of 12–13°C and no incoming cold fronts strong enough to push readings lower before midnight. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted southerly change or localized radiational cooling under clearer skies, but current model agreement and proximity to resolution make such shifts unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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