Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoForme di tempesta denominate prima della stagione degli uragani?
Forme di tempesta denominate prima della stagione degli uragani?
Sì
$332,035 Vol.
$332,035 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$332,035 Vol.
$332,035 Vol.
31 mag 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$332,035Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$332,035Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 62.5% implied probability for a named storm before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion on April 15, 2026, confirming no active tropical cyclones or disturbances with near-term development potential across the basin. Persistent high vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet, combined with sea surface temperatures in the main development region still below optimal thresholds for genesis—typically needing 26.5°C or warmer—bolster this positioning, aligning with climatological rarity where pre-season named storms have occurred only five times since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid weak La Niña influences, though NHC outlooks resume full issuance May 15, when any emerging lows could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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