Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNext Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) rilasciato il...?
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) rilasciato il...?
On or prior to September 1 39%
7 settembre 34%
September 2 26%
September 3 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
On or prior to September 1
24%
September 2
26%
September 3
25%
September 4
12%
September 5
9%
September 6
5%
7 settembre
34%
8 settembre
4%
9 settembre
7%
10 settembre
8%
11 settembre
5%
12 settembre
5%
13 settembre
3%
14 settembre
7%
15 settembre
27%
Nessun rilascio entro il 15 settembre
11%
On or prior to September 1 39%
7 settembre 34%
September 2 26%
September 3 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
On or prior to September 1
$145 Vol.
24%
September 2
$39 Vol.
26%
September 3
$87 Vol.
25%
September 4
$51 Vol.
12%
September 5
$457 Vol.
9%
September 6
$457 Vol.
5%
7 settembre
$39 Vol.
34%
8 settembre
$51 Vol.
4%
9 settembre
$51 Vol.
7%
10 settembre
$39 Vol.
8%
11 settembre
$50 Vol.
5%
12 settembre
$47 Vol.
5%
13 settembre
$117 Vol.
3%
14 settembre
$39 Vol.
7%
15 settembre
$47 Vol.
27%
Nessun rilascio entro il 15 settembre
$98 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,814Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,814Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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